A Prediction Model for Bankruptcy of Football Clubs: The French Case

Yann Carin

European football in general, and French football in particular, is experiencing huge financial difficulties and insolvencies. This paper analyses the bankruptcy of French football clubs between the 2008/09 and 2015/16 seasons. Various prediction models were used over the period 2008/09 and 2013/14 to create a model applied to French football and to provide regulatory bodies with an additional tool that could be used to evaluate clubs. A validation test was made on the 2014/15 and 2015/16 seasons. This paper shows that a prediction model for bankruptcy cannot be generalized to apply to all French football clubs. It also shows that the use of a revised version of Altman’s model is applicable to French football clubs. Finally, a new bankruptcy prediction model allows us to obtain better results. The evolution of the score over time is an important signal to identify and anticipate the financial deterioration of a club.

DOI: http://doi.org/10.32731/IJSF/144.112019.03

Open Access