Rodney J. Paul

This study extends the research on atmospheric conditions and scoring in sporting events by examining components of air density as it relates to National Football League (NFL) games. Statistically significant results were found in relation to the role of humidity in explaining the difference between actual scoring and the betting market total for NFL games. Simple wagering strategies based on humidity, wind speed, and a combination of these factors were shown to reject market efficiency. From game statistics, it appears that humidity may unexpectedly influence the rushing game, leading to...Read more

Rodney J. Paul and Andrew P. Weinbach

Television ratings for Sunday and Monday night NFL football are examined using betting market prices as explanatory variables. Primetime broadcasts are shown to respond positively to the win percentages of the teams playing and the expected amount of scoring measured by the betting market total. The point spread, measuring uncertainty of outcome, is found to have a negative, but insignificant effect on ratings. Betting market volume is shown to be influenced by the same factors as ratings, and the residuals of betting volume, known before the game is played, is shown to have a positive and...Read more

Brad R. Humphreys
Rodney J. Paul
Andrew P. Weinbach

Betting strategies based on the presence of home-underdog bias in the NFL have been shown to produce returns in excess of those predicted by market efficiency in some situations. Dare and Dennis (2011) attribute this bias to bettors underestimating the scoring ability of home underdogs. Using a more recent sample of data, we find contradictory results. We challenge the assumptions of the Dare and Dennis (2011) model and use detailed betting data to offer an alternative rationale for the homeunderdog bias. We illustrate that bettors have clear and predictable tendencies for betting on the...Read more

Richard John Ryall
Anthony Bedford

This paper examines the efficiency of the “in-play” Australian Rules football fixed odds betting market at quarter time, half time, and three quarter time. Tests of semi-strong efficiency are performed on the 2009 AFL season using logistic regression analysis. The results demonstrate that as the match progresses, there is a significant bias against the team that is currently leading—a bias that increases when the team that is leading is also the away-favorite. This bias is shown to yield significant profits utilizing simple betting strategies.Read more