Minkyo Lee
Robert F. Potter
Choong Hoon Lim
and Paul M. Pedersen

The present study investigated the effect of emotions derived from the unique nature of spectator sport (e.g., uncertainty about outcomes) on sport fans’ responses to advertisements presented in a sport broadcasting context. In order to test the study’s hypotheses, a repeated measures design (i.e., program-induced valence [2] × program-induced arousal [2] × ad valence [2]) was employed. As hypothesized, the affective reactions to game outcomes (i.e., a win or a loss) had significant carry-over effects on the evaluative judgments to commercials. The findings enrich our understanding of how...Read more

Minkyo Lee
Robert F. Potter
Choong Hoon Lim
and Paul M. Pederson

The present study investigated the effect of emotions derived from the unique nature of spectator sport (e.g., uncertainty about outcomes) on sport fans’ responses to advertisements presented in a sport broadcasting context. In order to test the study’s hypotheses, a repeated measures design (i.e., program-induced valence [2] × program-induced arousal [2] × ad valence [2]) was employed. As hypothesized, the affective reactions to game outcomes (i.e., a win or a loss) had significant carry-over effects on the evaluative judgments to commercials. The findings enrich our understanding of how...Read more

Leví Pérez
Víctor Puente
and Plácido Rodríguez

The uncertainty of outcome hypothesis is revisited in this paper in the context of a more general demand analysis of free-to-air soccer games broadcast in Spain. Apart from analyzing some expected determinants of television viewers’ aggregate behavior, such as the quality of the game and the type of match broadcast, and other seasonal effects, an alternative approach based on bettor predictions of the possible outcome of a particular match is used to test this hypothesis. The empirical findings show that expected uncertainty of outcome may either have no effect on (soccer) TV audiences or...Read more

Oliver Budzinski and Tim Pawlowski

Despite the prominence and relevance of the uncertainty-of-outcome hypothesis (UOH) for professional sports worldwide, decades of empirical research have not been successful in establishing clear evidence for the importance of outcome uncertainty for stadium attendance and TV audience. In this regard, some recent papers were developed drawing upon a body of behavioral economic thoughts that might help to better understand the divergence between the UOH, competitive balance, and consumer choices. Since this literature has so far focused on different facets of behavioral economics, it is the...Read more

Nicholas M. Watanabe

While much of the focus on professional sport is divided between North America and Europe, there is a growing need to analyze sport leagues and organizations outside of these two regions. In this paper, the J-League, Japan’s top flight professional soccer league, is the focus of examination through a seasonal attendance model which seeks to test the importance of region and competitive balance in determining demand for attendance. The results of this model indicate that fans are sensitive to competitive balance, confirming the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. Furthermore, this paper...Read more

Dennis Coates
Brad R. Humphreys

We examine the relationship between game day attendance, uncertainty of outcome, and team and facility quality in the National Football League. Based on results from a reduced form model of game day attendance at 5,495 regular season NFL games from the 1985-2008 seasons, we find weak evidence that attendance increases when fans expect the home team to win by a large margin, and strong evidence that attendance decreases when the home team is expected to lose, contrary to the predictions of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis.Read more

Rodney J. Paul
Andrew P. Weinbach
Richard Borghesi
Mark Wilson

Betting market odds for Major League Baseball are used to examine the level of uncertainty of outcome, an ex-ante form of competitive balance. The efficient markets hypothesis cannot be rejected for the years 1990-2006 in Major League Baseball. Therefore, the odds provide an ex-ante measure of the uncertainty of outcome of baseball games in the minds of fans and bettors. The odds for both the American and National Leagues were shown to increase during the 1990s, implying more certainty in the expected outcome of the game. Bettors and fans believed favorites in Major League Baseball were...Read more

Brian P. Soebbing

Competitive balance research partitions into two areas: analyzing sports policy and its effect on competitive balance and the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. This paper examines the latter section. No formal analysis of the relationship between competitive balance and regular season average attendance in Major League Baseball (MLB) using the actual to idealized standard deviation ratio exits. This paper examines the effect that competitive balance has on MLB attendance between the seasons 1920 and 2006. Additionally, this paper incorporates a games-behind variable to examine if fans are...Read more

Daniel A. Rascher
John Paul G. Solmes

The National Basketball Association claims to sell entertainment. Part of that entertainment is close, competitive contests with uncertain outcomes. However, hometown fans want the home team to win. Hence, the optimal probability that the home team wins a game, from the perspective of maximizing demand, lays somewhere between 0.5 and 1.0. Using data from individual games for the 2001-02 season, this optimal probability was estimated to be approximately 0.66. Fans want their home team to have about twice the chance to win a game as the visiting team.Read more