Łukasz Skrok

A substantial number of empirical analyses of attendance at team sports events have been devoted to testing the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis, according to which the interest of fans is positively influenced by the degree of uncertainty of an outcome. The results, however, have turned out to be inconclusive. This article examines a possible explanation based on the flaws of the testing method. I show that results consistent with the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis can be obtained even when attendance is solely determined by the quality of the competing teams. The reason for this is...Read more

Tim Pawlowski
Oliver Budzinski

Ever since the pioneering work of Rottenberg (1956) and Neale (1964), the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis (UOH) has played a major role in the economic analysis of professional sport leagues. However, decades of empirical research have not been successful in establishing clear evidence for the importance of competitive balance (CB) for attendance or TV viewers in European professional football. In order to find possible reasons for the gap between the UOH and (the lack of) its empirical validation, our paper adopts a stated preference approach focused on the fans’ perception of CB and...Read more