Timothy L. Urban

Some coaches are so successful and have such an impact on their team that they are considered “legendary.” When they step down from their position and the team transitions to a new head coach, there will likely be a great deal of uncertainty concerning how the team will perform in this new situation; thus, it may take time for the betting markets to adjust. The purpose of this study is to investigate the efficiency of a sports betting market for the rare situation in which a legend steps down from the head coaching position. Data from the National Football League are analyzed using a novel...Read more

Brad R. Humphreys

Previous research on point spread betting often assumed that bookmakers attract an equal volume of bets on either side of games in order to maximize profits. This paper examines the plausibility of this assumption. Financial simulations based on actual bet volumes on NFL games, point spreads, and game outcomes over the 2005-2008 NFL seasons indicate that unbalanced betting generated positive profits for book makers, including profits larger than would have been made if the betting volume was balanced on all games.Read more