FiT Publishing

This paper illustrates the value of using betting data to simulate an ex-ante distribution of league-point outcomes for English professional association football. Competition in the three tiers of the English Football League (EFL) is much more balanced than in the English Premier League (EPL). The competition at the top of the tables is more concentrated than at the bottom of the tables. Clubs relegated into a lower league tend to perform well the next season. Still, this effect does not seem to be impacted by parachute payments given to those relegated from the EPL into the second...Read more

The recently signed TV deals by the English Premier League and LaLiga imply that income from TV rights are expected to increase significantly in both football championships. We analyzed the impact of these revenue increases in terms of the effect on financial inequality. We conclude, and provide empirical evidence, that the expected financial imbalance between clubs will suffer an increase in absolute terms, but a decrease in relative terms for both competitions. The aim of this paper is to measure the effect of the new TV deals on the competitive balance of these championships. We...Read more

This paper addresses an important question on the consequences of relegation from some of Europe’s top football leagues: What is the team’s performance following relegation, compared to the situation without relegation? We compare the performance of relegated and non-relegated teams that battled until the last match to escape relegation in four large European leagues. We find that, on average, up to six seasons are necessary to completely reabsorb the negative relegation shock in sports outcomes. Additionally, we exploit current information on future TV rights revenues to forecast the...Read more